Why AI Isn’t Replacing Senior Engineers Anytime Soon
AI is getting better at writing code, but it’s still nowhere near replacing experienced programmers. The reason is because by the time a problem is well-defined enough for an AI to solve it, a senior engineer already considers it solved.
The Wrong Metric for the Job
Take SWE-bench, a benchmark that tests AI by having it fix well-documented GitHub issues. On the surface, it sounds impressive—AI solving real-world coding problems! But if you look closer, these issues are incredibly detailed. Many are written by engineers who already understand the problem inside and out. They’re not the vague, messy bug reports most software teams deal with. Instead, they’re pre-packaged tasks, ready for execution.
This is useful—AI can help clear out routine work—but it’s not replacing the real job of a senior engineer. That job isn’t just about writing code; it’s about defining the problems worth solving in the first place.
Programming Is More Than Fixing Issues
A junior developer may struggle to estimate how long a project might take. That’s because once a problem is clearly defined, most of the hard work is already done. Entry-level devs handle well-scoped tasks, but as you move up, you shift from “implementing solutions” to “figuring out what needs solving.”
A senior engineer doesn’t just write code; they design systems, weigh trade-offs, and align technology with business goals. AI isn’t doing that yet. To truly replace jobs, an AI wouldn’t just fix GitHub issues—it would have to answer an open-ended prompt like, “Research, design, and market new products for my company." And do it well.
What This Means for Junior Developers
AI is already handling a lot of repetitive coding work, which used to be a big part of learning the craft. The real skill in software engineering isn’t just writing code—it’s understanding ‘what’ to build and ‘why’. If AI takes over the busywork, junior developers might spend less time grinding through boilerplate and more time learning higher-level problem-solving skills.
What Happens Next?
If AI keeps improving, we’ll probably need fewer programmers for routine tasks. But that doesn’t mean fewer opportunities—it could mean more developers working on ambitious projects that wouldn’t have been possible before.
Of course, if AGI ever arrives—the kind of AI that can reason about complex trade-offs and make strategic decisions—then we’re not just talking about replacing programmers. We’re talking about potentially replacing “every” job. But until then, software engineering is still very much a human skill.